A Micromodel of New Product Adoption with Heterogeneous and Forward-Looking Consumers: Application to the Digital Camera Category

We develop an empirical model for the adoption process of a new durable product that accounts for consumer heterogeneity as well as consumers forward-looking behavior. Accounting for heterogeneity is important for two reasons. As the mix of consumers with different preferences and price sensitivities could change over time, firms need to update their marketing strategies. Further, it allows for a variety of shapes for the aggregate adoption process over time. As prices for durable and technology products fall over time with firms continually introducing enhanced products, consumers may anticipate these prices and improvements and delay their purchases in the product category. Forward-looking consumers optimize purchase timing by trading off their utilities from buying the product and their expectations on future prices, quality levels, and brand availability. Such forward-looking behavior will result in price dynamics in the marketplace as price changes today influence future purchases. And it results in different shapes of the new product sales pattern over time by influencing the time to take-off. We show how the parameters of our model can be estimated using aggregate data on the sales, prices, and attributes of brands in a product category. We apply our model to market data from the digital camera category. Our data are consistent with the presence of both heterogeneity and forward looking behavior among consumers. At the product category level, we are able to decompose the effects of the entry of Sony into primary demand expansion and switching from other brands. At the brand level, we find that there exist several segments in the market with different preferences for the brands and different price sensitivities leading to differences in adoption timing and brand choice across segments. For a given brand, we show how the changing customer mix over time has implications for that brands pricing strategies. We characterize how price effects vary across brands and over time and how price changes in a given time period influence sales in subsequent periods. Model comparison and validation results are also provided.     

关于新农村建设中农业信息化问题的再思考

积极推进农业信息化建设,是加强农村基础设施建设,改善新农村建设物质条件的一项重要内容。本文通过对我国农业信息化现状及原因的分析,针对我国的实际情况提出农业信息化建设的重点是：政策倾斜,打破垄断,吸引多方面力量投入农业信息化建设;加强政府在农业信息化建设上的主导作用;优化结构,促进信息资源的开发整合;完善农村信息市场,为农民提供可靠便捷的信息服务;加大信息化人才培养,完善信息化人才支撑体系。     

新经济时代的企业战略管理

知识经济时代赋予企业前所未有的机遇和挑战 ,新经济时代企业战略管理是企业管理的首要工作 ,做好企业战略管理必须从企业人才、科技、生产、市场等方面进行创新。     

论新农村建设背景下的供销社改革

供销社的改革与发展是社会主义新农村建设的重要组成部分。在新世纪新阶段,供销社要抓住建设社会主义新农村的良好契机,合理定位,积极改革,充分发挥在服务"三农"、构建城乡和谐社会中所应有的作用。     

以科学发展观探索城市“低保”工作的新思路

科学发展观是以胡锦涛为首的党中央从新世纪新阶段党和国家事业发展全局出发提出的重大战略思想,这也为探索城市“低保”工作的新思路提供了分析的基础。从我国实际国情出发,城市“低保”工作要完成由单一的资金救助向就业保障转变;由生活保障为主向职业技能培训为主转变;由单纯发钱分物向多层次扶助转变。     

发展县域民营经济建设社会主义新农村

大力发展县域民营经济是社会主义新农村建设的一项重要发展战略。黑龙江省县域民营经济发展还存在着经营规模小,技术水平低,产业结构不合理,区域发展不均衡等问题。应树立健康发展新理念;优化发展环境;加快载体建设,培育产业集群;大力发展中介组织;加快“三个创新;”深化社会领域改革,增强民营企业社会责任感;强化企业诚信建设。     

新经济在美国的发展与宏观经济调控

在美国经济发展过程中 ,联邦政府实施的宏观经济调控政策起着重要的作用。从提高国际竞争力的技术政策 ,致力于扩大出口的贸易政策 ,有增有减的财政政策及温和的货币政策四个方面论述了美国宏观经济政策的实施。同时 ,我国在经济转轨时期 ,经济运行也要选择总量控制、有增有减、结构优化的协调运行的经济政策体系 ,以促进经济的协调发展     

经济全球化下跨国资本流动的新趋势与对策

经济全球化下,跨国资本流动产生了有别于传统的新趋势。以控制海外企业所有权的对外直接投资已成为跨国资本流向的主要形式。外资控股对产业结构会带来一定的影响,跨国资本出于全球战略考虑,会强化资本输入国产业畸形发展,对我国产业结构调整和升级带来不利影响。因此,对于跨国资本流动新趋势和作用应从经济全球化和国家战略发展的维度来思考对策。     

The Impact of Company Resources and Capabilities on Global New Product Program Performance

Product innovation and the trend to globalization are two important and interrelated dimensions driving business today. In this article, the results of five published research articles on the topic of global new product development (NPD) are summarized to provide an integrated overview of the factors that impact global NPD program performance. The overall conceptual framework is based on three types of literature—NPD, globalization, and organization. The main theoretical approach for establishing relationships between factors is the dynamic capability/resource‐based view. Accordingly, factors linked to outcome are seen as operating on different organizational levels, with more actionable initiatives or ‘capabilities’ largely mediating the softer and longer term background ‘resources’ of the firm. The analyses are based on a broad cross‐industry sample of 467 firms (North America, Europe, B2B, goods/services). Three global NPD‐related background resources (global innovation culture, resource commitment, and senior management involvement), labeled the ‘behavioral environment’ of the firm, are identified and shown to be linked to global NPD program performance via the mediated effect of four specific NPD capabilities (NPD process, strategy, team, and IT/communication). A qualitative synthesis of the findings is provided, along with recommended management initiatives with which firms can enhance their performance in the global NPD effort. Both sets of factors are found to be essential and highly interrelated, but it is the strength of the behavioral environment resources that distinguish the best performing firms, setting the stage for success in global NPD.     

新时期农村水利工程管理的策略研究

我国是一个农业大国,农村水利工程是抵御自然灾害,改善农村生产、生活条件及生态环境,促进农民增收、农业发展、农村进步的重要设施。农村水利工程管理工作关系到农村经济的可持续发展,分析当前农村水利工程管理面临的现实问题,加强农村水利工程管理的策略研究,具有特别重要的现实意义。